Tag: Trump Russia Iran Syria

The Rules of the Game Have Changed

The main topic of discussion after the termination of Soleimani revolves around the question of whether it was legal to wipe him off the face of the Earth without violating international laws. However, that is not the point at all.  It is not a matter of international legal norms.

The story of the termination of Soleimani is not an isolated incident. The story is a continuation of the history of a battle on February 7, 2018, near the city of Deir ez-Zur in Syria. A detachment of American servicemen (several dozen people under the leadership of the lieutenant) defeated a motorized battalion (about 600 people), reinforced with tanks and armored personnel carriers, of the Russian military. Only one Russian armored carrier left the battle, and several hundred mercenaries were killed in a short 4-hour battle. Not a single American was even injured.

How was such an outcome possible?

Trump has changed many established US rules of the international game, including militarily speaking. The Russian and American soldier’s military training is not the only factor at play. For more details, see my article, devoted to comparing the military budgets of Russia and the USA. If the military budget of Russia is ten times less than the US, then Iran’s military budget is 25 times less.

“The battle was made possible by the fact that President Trump canceled Obama’s rules of engagement with the enemy. The decision on the use of weapons is now made by the unit commander on the spot (as it always was throughout military history) and not a military lawyer in a cozy office in the Pentagon.”

Gary Gindler. Trump’s Military Budget: Seventy versus Seven Hundred

Decisions Now Made by Field Officers and More Quickly

At a conceptual level, Trump reduced the requirements for point, or laser, target designation from “complete certainty” (under Obama rules) to “reasonable certainty” that a given target will be in the right place at the right time. At the same time, he excluded the huge bureaucratic machine of the National Security Council from the operational decision-making process on the attack. 

In addition to this, Trump severely and painfully suppressed the interagency wars between the Pentagon and the CIA, which went on for decades. Finally, Trump returned to the American armed forces what is called in the corporate world “delegation of authority” – now the right to use weapons, the right to open fire, is given to those who historically must have them – the military officers in a field. For the officers, this is an enormous responsibility. Now those officers will be responsible for any mistake they make, not some Pentagon lawyer.

Butcher of the Middle East

Over the past year, we had witnessed three episodes when commanders in a field made decisions that radically changed the entire strategic situation in the region. In addition to the defeat of Russian mercenaries in 2018, we witnessed the termination of the head of the Islamic Caliphate al Baghdadi in October 2019 and the termination of the Iranian general Soleimani in January 2020.

However, the title “general” was just the official military rank of Soleimani. This title does not reflect what his actual position and significance were. By using an analogy of Reinhard Heydrich, “The Butcher of Prague” during World War II, Soleimani should be called the “Butcher of the Middle East.” The parallels here are very clear: both butchers played a key role in the “final solution of the Jewish question” by the best representatives of the “Aryan race.”

We know that the landing of Soleimani on a plane in Damascus was detected. We know that his arrival in Baghdad was detected.  Despite those two truths, we do not know and probably will never know the names of the agents who did this. Then, Soleimani’s entering into one of two cars that met him in Baghdad was detected. Furthermore, only then, laser illumination was aimed at the cars to accompany the target.

We do not know who carried out the laser illumination – CIA agents or special forces soldiers. What is known is these fearless guys were in the immediate, visual proximity of both cars. Using the powers received from the president, they decided, requested then quickly got approval to launch a missile strike on both cars. Most likely, they were the first to arrive at the site of the strike. 

The Trump Doctrine: Simple, Rational and Understandable

Opinions in the Middle East on the question of the destruction of Soleimani were divided. A week has passed since the destruction of Soleimani, but so far, only one country – Iran – threatens Israel. No other Muslim country threatens to bomb Israel. It seems that Trump’s policy in the region is bearing fruit: the Middle East is approaching the realization that Israel is an integral part of the Middle East, and its indivisible capital is Jerusalem.

Trump’s foreign policy is a denial of both previous presidents. Obama’s doctrine centered around constant flirting with terrorist regimes, their tacit encouragement and financing. Bush utilized a bribery on a particularly large scale to the country’s elite to establish friendly relations.

Trump’s Message…

Improve the Middle East yourselves.  America is not interested in you and your problems. Most importantly, America will no longer pay for your welfare.  Not a cent.  America has reliable friends in the Middle East – for example, the unsinkable aircraft carrier “Israel” with a team that consists of guys and gals with the highest IQ in the world. We will always support them, and they will always support us.  If you want, join America and Israel, if you don’t want to, then simply don’t join.  Do what you want – cut each other throats, as you have done over the millennia. If you want, stop cutting and killing each other. Either way, we are not interested.

After America has become the world leader in gas and oil production, the Middle East is no longer interesting to us. America is rapidly moving towards becoming not only the world leader in energy production but also the world leader in oil and gas exports. Everyone who interferes with us will pay the consequences. Yes, this also applies to the Kremlin, where General Soleimani was a frequent and welcome guest.

Trade Markets Galore for the US

Moreover, we no longer need the Middle East as a market for our goods. We have enough markets, especially after the adoption of the new trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico (USMCA). The trade agreement with China is coming, which will finally begin to open China for American goods. After Great Britain leaves the cabal European Union, America will also ink a separate trade agreement with her. This will make us the envy everyone else.

After Trump untied the hands of the American military, Iran’s impunity to commit terrorist acts around the world ends. Iran’s economy is ruined thanks to US sanctions (inflation is over 30%), and the political influence of the theocratic regime is weakening.

Thanks to Trump, the US is Winning

Without exception, all the countries of the hostile to America Russia-Iran-Syria-North Korea axis are trying to emulate WWII Axis powers. They are finally beginning to understand what the impeachment is and what its real, not theoretical, consequences are. They seem to have spent too much time watching some propaganda channels like CNN and came to the rash (and deadly wrong) conclusion that Trump is over and should no longer be reckoned with.

Nevertheless, thanks to Trump’s policies, several courageous American officers turned the number one Iranian terrorist into dust. Moreover, the other photogenic leadership of the Aryan Islamic “republic” came with a clear understanding that they are all in the crosshairs. 

[Originally published at New Right Network]

THE SIDE EFFECT OF IMPEACHMENT HYSTERIA

What happened last week in Northern Syria is a direct result of “bluffpeachment.” Erdogan decided to take advantage of the current American political climate. While Trump is busy with more pressing matters, Erdogan put the Turkish invasion of Syria for the “final solution of the Kurdish question,” on the table. Trump had no choice but to get the American guys out of harm’s way.

The Kurds should thank the short-sighted strategists of the DNC for Turkish aggression. Hong Kong residents are also paying for the short-sighted policies of the American Left, who, for the past three years, have been trying to expel the legally elected president from the White House. Their (untrue) signal that Trump is about to be overthrown has been heard both in Beijing and in Ankara.

But Turkey made a serious mistake – they attacked civilians.  Of course, television footage of these crimes and further bullying of civilians by Turkish troops in Northern Syria cannot be compared with what the Russian occupation troops were doing in Northern Georgia and Eastern Ukraine. However, all you see the media cover are the events in Northern Syria. The suffering of the Kurdish people is at least sympathetic, and the suffering of Georgians and Ukrainians is ignored. Why?

Because in the north of Syria, there are not just unknown Georgians and Ukrainians who are suffering, but the ideological comrades of the American Democrats – the Marxists of the Kurdistan Workers Party.

THE MIDDLE EASTERN LEFTISTS

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is a group that the United States, Turkey, and most Western countries view as a terrorist organization. The PKK is a neo-Marxist party that professes a so-called Democratic Confederalism. Their main goal is to establish an independent state of Kurdistan, based on the ideas of Mao Zedong. Their primary weapon is terrorism. The ideology of the PKK is an explosive mixture of Maoism and Sharia. PKK branches (under different names and different levels of fanaticism) exist in all countries where the Kurds historically live—Turkey (HDP, HUDA-PAR, PKK), Syria (PYD / YPG, ENKS), Iran (DPIK, PJAK), and Iraq (KDP, PUK, KDSP, KIU).

The Kurds won sympathy from the (left) West by allowing women to fight (and commit terrorist attacks) along with men. As a result of these gender-equal terrorists, the left-wing feminist movement also supports the Kurds – despite the fact that about half of Kurdish women undergo a humiliating Muslim genital mutilation procedure.

In 2019, American Leftists try to lend a helping hand to the Kurdish Communists – just like they extended a helping hand to the Maoists of China in 1949, the Communists of Vietnam in 1969, and the Communists of Latin America in 1986.

The same forces that were so outraged by the introduction of American troops into the Middle East (into Iraq, for example) are now outraged by the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East (from Syria, for example). At first glance, there are clear signs of cognitive dissonance, but, unfortunately, there is no contradiction here. At one time, the American Left was against the war with the prominent Arab socialist Saddam Hussein, and now they are simply trying to protect another Middle Eastern Left – Kurdish Maoists.

WE SHOULD THANK THE KURDS FOR HELPING US IN SYRIA, BUT…

For those who demand that the country of Kurdistan appear on the world map with the help of American soldiers, it should be recalled that the most reliable US ally in the region – Israel – has never demanded American protection.  America did not send its sons to defend Israel either in the Six-Day War, the Yom Kippur War, or the 1948 War of Independence. Israel gained its independence by itself, without demanding anything from the United States.

Why should America pay with the lives of its citizens to resolve the Kurdish issue? Why are American taxpayers obligated to fund the Marxist fanatics of the Kurdistan Workers Party? On what basis should Americans correct historical mistakes made not by America, but by the European winners of World War I?

Yes, the Kurds enthusiastically supported the United States, but only when it was beneficial to them.  The Kurds never supported the United States unconditionally, when the United States needed it, as Israel always does (which sometimes Israel even does to its own detriment).

Have the Kurds ever fought against ISIS? Yes, they have, but the Kurdish struggle against ISIS was paid for by America in full – the Kurdish mercenaries were paid the same rate as all other participants in the Syrian civil war. Now that the civil war is over, and the ophthalmologist won (thanks in large part to Iran and Russia, which, by the way as a result of the war, got access to the Mediterranean Sea).

Recall the end of World War II. In 1945, well-armed (with American money), well-fed (with American money), and well-trained (with American money) units of the Soviet Red Army captured Berlin. After that, funding for the Soviet Union’s war machine by America was stopped, and the Soviet Communists were even forced to abandon some of the territories they already occupied (for example, Austria).  Of course, in 1945, as today, we hear the angry voices of those who complain that “America treacherously threw the Soviet Communists Kurdish Communists to the mercy of fate.”

However, the demands for supporting the Kurds in 2019 are tantamount to the requirement of financing the war machine of the Soviet Union by American taxpayers after 1945.

One group of American citizens advocates precisely for that – the American Democrats.  As it is known, the heiress of the (created by the Democrats) Ku-Klux-Klan, the leftist terrorist organization Antifa is undergoing military training not elsewhere, but with their ideological comrades-in-arms – the Kurdish Maoists.

In addition, one should not forget the anti-Semitic component of the Democrats – they are very impressed by the fact that the “Jewish question” has long been “solved” within the conditional borders of Kurdistan – all Jews were expelled from Kurdistan in the early 20th century (except for those families of Jewish slaves who are still the family property of some Kurds, and are still inherited).

WHY DID TWO RECONNAISSANCE UNITS BETRAY THE KURDS?

The “progressive humanity” became hysterical because of Trump’s decision to withdraw some 50 troops from northern Syria (two reconnaissance detachments), who were on a path of 15,000-strong Turkish invasion forces.  Nevertheless, the transfer of 50 soldiers from one place to another is not at all on the level of a commander-in-chief.  This is on the level of the regiment commander and does not correspond to the conventional wisdom of cabinet strategists that say, “Trump betrayed the Kurds.” Did he betray them due to the relocation of two reconnaissance units headed by lieutenants?

On the one hand, the Pentagon pulled 50 men out of harm’s way in Syria. On the other hand, on Friday, October 11, 2019, the Pentagon announced that an additional 3,000 soldiers would be sent to the Middle East. In total, from May of this year, the American contingent in the Middle East increased by 14,000 people, the size of a division. For everyone who considers himself a geopolitical strategist and is hysterical about sending 50 troops back home, one should calm down and understand that geopolitics operates on a much larger scale than the two reconnaissance units.

Over the past weekend, there have been significant changes in northern Syria. The Kurdish front was unexpectedly broken through because the vaunted Kurdish fighters and their fighting girlfriends provided virtually no resistance to the professional Turkish army. As a result, the Turkish pseudo-sultan’s appetite has increased significantly – and Erdogan now plans to wedge even deeper into Syria and establish a 30-kilometer buffer zone there to protect its southern borders. It is possible that by the time this article is published,Syria and Turkey will officially declare war on each other.

What was Trump’s response? He ordered the withdrawal of all remaining US troops in Syria – about 1,000 men. Before the Turkish invasion into Syria, both Iran and Russia rubbed their hands joyfully, for they had formally achieved their goals in Syria. Now they will have to reckon with the strongest Muslim army in the Middle East, the Turkish army, and at the same time be very careful because Turkey is a member of NATO.

As a result, Trump elegantly added a headache to Iran, Russia, and the ophthalmologist Assad. All at someone else’s expense, of course. After all, everyone understands that the 30-kilometer Turkish buffer zone will not be fiction like Obama’s “red line” in Syria. At the same time, while everyone is talking about impeachment and the Kurds, Trump secretly deployed a whole American division into the Middle East. Where exactly and for what purpose? Unlike Obama, who had a reputation for brainlessly informing the entire world about his strategic plans, Trump does not spread his.

Apparently, cooperation between Israel, NATO, and the Middle East counterpart of NATO, known as the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), which is based on the confrontation with Iran, is reaching a new level.

[Originally published at New Right Network]

После того, как президент Трамп в своей обычной манере (через Твиттер) объявил о выводе американских войск из Сирии, на него обрушился шквал негодования. Шквал не меньший, чем после одностороннего выхода Америки в октябре этого года из Договора по ядерным ракетам средней и малой дальности.

Но, как мы знаем, шквал негодования по поводу ядерных ракет вскоре утих. Но утих он только после того, как критики Трампа наконец-то удосужились прочитать текст Договора и удостовериться в том, что он касается только ракет наземного базирования, и совсем не затрагивает ядерные ракеты морского, воздушного, и космического базирования. Вместе с тем, США имеет не менее чем десятикратное преимущество по отношению к российским ядерным системам морского и воздушного базирования. Истерика по этому поводу в Америке и Европе затихла давно, но в России этот ход Трампа до сих пор вызывает неприкрытое раздражение.

Надеюсь, что несправедливые обвинения Трампа в «предательстве союзников» и «новогоднем подарке Ирану и России» скоро тоже затихнут. Пример необходимо брать с России – она уже выучила свои уроки общения с Трампом, и никакой эйфории в Кремле по поводу «вывода американских войск» из Сирии нет. Почему?

Во-первых, из Сирии домой вернутся только две тысячи военнослужащих «наземного базирования». Но ведь Сирия как была, так и осталась зажата со всех сторон как американской 6-й Флотилией (операции в Средиземном море), так и 5-й Флотилией (операции в Персидском Заливе и Красном море). Разумеется, речь идет не только о военно-морских силах, но и мощной палубной авиации, расположенной на авианосцах. Кроме того, авиация США, которая базируется на многочисленных аэродромах на Ближнем Востоке, в Турции, в Греции, и в Италии как участвовала, так и будет продолжать участвовать в сирийских операциях.

Кроме того, по договоренности с НАТО, Франция расширит свое участие в военных операциях на севере Сирии и восполнит «пробел» из-за ухода американских пехотинцев. При этом вывод будет происходить так, что каждое выводимое подразделение американских военных будет тут же заменяться французскими военными. Иными словами, властный вакуум, который оставил Обама в 2011 году при выводе войск из Ирака, в Сирии не повторится.

Во-вторых, на наших глазах начинается воплощаться план Трампа по всеобъемлющему урегулированию конфликтов на Ближнем Востоке. План этот совсем неоригинальный, и Трамп отнюдь не первый, кто решил для достижения своих целей применить «мирное» нефтегазовое оружие в затянувшемся конфликте. В конце 2008 года его применили русские нефтяники, прекратив подачу энергоносителей в замерзающую Европу, а в конце 2018 года – американские нефтяники, наводнив мировой рынок энергоносителями.

Благодаря американским нефтяникам США вышли на первое место в мире по добыче нефти (в сентябре этого года) и природного газа (два года назад). Экспорт американских энергоносителей с каждым годом растет, а их цена – падает. Падение цены на нефть только с сентября этого года составило уже около 40%, а с точки максимума в 2008 году цена нефти упала примерно на 70%. Падение цен на природный газ с 2006 года продолжается непрерывно и составило уже около 75%.

Эти экономические результаты приводят не только к хорошо заметным для всех американцев снижениям цен на бензоколонках, но и к стратегическому изменению ситуации на Ближнем Востоке.

Мусульманский мир, потерявший влияние и находившийся в длительном упадке после поражения под Веной 11-12 сентября 1683 года, в начале ХХ века получил неожиданную отсрочку. Сначала, в 1908 году, была найдена нефть в Иране, затем в Ираке в 1927 году, и в Саудовской Аравии в 1938 году. Заметим, что многовековая потеря позиций мусульманского мира в экономической, политической, и военной сферах явилась тем фоном, который привел в конце-концов к созданию современного Израиля.

Нефтяной адреналин привел к созданию баснословно богатых мусульманских королевств, чем и воспользовался СССР, предложив им детально разработанные методы политического террора. Впрочем, ничего другого от России, которая изобрела политический террор в XIX веке, никто и не ожидал. Курды, разбросанные по территориям четырех стран, традиционно считаются союзниками США. Но не стоит забывать, что движение курдов в течение долгого времени возглавляли коммунисты, которых поддерживал Советский Союз, и террористическая инфраструктура курдов во многом создана с помощью СССР. Следует ли напоминать, что основной политической силой курдов до сих пор является марксистско-ленинская Рабочая партия Курдистана (которая после включения ее в 2003 году в список террористических организаций уже несколько раз поменяла название, пытаясь замести следы).

Но инновации американских инженеров (такие, как сланцевая нефть) приводят к тому, что столетняя временная отсрочка, данная мусульманскому миру Ближнего Востока, подходит к концу. После обнаружения нефти на Ближнем Востоке война между суннитами и шиитами, которая продолжается с конца VII века, разгорелась было с новой силой. Но в настоящее время отсутствие нефтяных суперприбылей вынуждает мусульман искать альянсы, которые ранее считались просто из области фантастики. Мусульмане-сунниты объединились с Израилем и США против мусульман-шиитов Ирана, правящей верхушки Сирии, и России.

Затяжной конфликт в Сирии привел к тому, что, как это часто случается, среди противоборствующих сторон уже практически не осталось «хороших парней». Всем известен случай, когда во времена президента Обамы группа боевиков в Сирии, поддерживаемая Пентагоном, воевала с группой боевиков в той же Сирии, поддерживаемой ЦРУ.

Трамп в создавшейся ситуации сделал единственно правильный выбор – отвести американских парней из-под удара и погасить пламя конфликта с помощью нефтегазового оружия.

Вывод американской пехоты из Сирии готовился давно, и явился сюрпризом только для неосведомленных. Как известно, Трамп приказал разработать план выхода из Сирии еще в феврале этого года, а в апреле этот план был частично рассекречен и обнародован.

Неожиданной «жертвой» вывода американской пехоты из Сирии оказался министр обороны США Маттис. Как известно, генерал Маттис – один из самых одаренных боевых генералов современности. Он, как и генерал Паттон до него, прекрасно владеет методами военной тактики и военной стратегии, но не приемлет гражданские методы решения военных задач. Боевой генерал Маттис не смог смириться с тем, что победа над исламским терроризмом будет завоевана инновациями американских инженеров, а не профессиональной и хорошо обученной армией, и решил выйти на пенсию.

Что ж, пожелаем нашим парням благополучно вернуться домой, а генералу Маттису пожелаем в Новом Году вдохновения для своих мемуаров. А вот России и ее друзьям в Иране, Сирии и Венесуэле в Новом Году на приятные сюрпризы надеяться не следует.